::TS:SCI:: Excerpt from Presidential Daily Briefing ::TS:SCI:: May 20th, 2021

[Capt Boyle]

Excerpt from Presidential Daily Briefing, May 20th, 2021

State Dept. INR partially dissents on conclusions

Analysts at the CIA, DIA, and NSA have concluded that at least a faction of the Serbian government is likely conducting hybrid warfare against Kosovo. Recent incidents along the Kosovan-Serbian border have suddenly become violent in at least four instances, including the murder of five Kosovan soldiers, the theft of Kosovan military equipment, and the engagement of US Marines in the region with gunfire. The group, identified as the Serbian Liberation of Kosovo Group, appears to be a fringe paramilitary group originating in Serbia but has at least some connections in Kosovo, particularly in the ethnic Serbian minority regions along the border. The group does have at least some backing from members of the Serbian government and military, demonstrated by their skirmish with US forces in the area during a training exercise. At least part of the group that opened fire on the Marines was able to escape via helicopter over the border, which did not appear to be challenged by Serbian border guards or the military. However, a credible source within the Serbian Ministry of Defense reported confusion regarding that incident amongst officials, with numerous commanders stationed along the border reportedly calling in attempting to figure out what was happening. NSA was able to confirm a spike in communication activity between the forward-deployed Serbian units and Belgrade. It is still the assessment of all agencies that Serbia is not in a position at this time to engage in a direct conflict, but there is a possibility that the SLKG is a stopgap measure to keep Kosovan forces off balance while the conventional forces prepare. 

 

Build up of Serbian forces along the Kosovan border

 

DIA estimates that Serbia requires at least another three months to reach combat readiness and will likely display several indicators prior to any direct action. NSA and CIA concur. State Dept. INR dissents on the timeline, as no movement has been made through any of Serbia’s diplomatic missions to offset any controversial actions.