Rabat, Algiers, Washington: The Dangerous Geometry of an Old War - Revue Diplomatique - June 23rd, 2025

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Rabat, Algiers, Washington: The Dangerous Geometry of an Old War

 

On a dusty highway south of Smara, what at first appeared to be another skirmish in a forgotten conflict may quickly escalate into a crisis with international ramifications. A convoy carrying Morocco’s Minister of the Interior was ambushed by armed separatists from the Polisario Front. The Minister survived with minor injuries. But among the dead were three American State Department officials traveling alongside him — an outcome that has turned a long-frozen dispute into an urgent matter of U.S. foreign policy.

 

The site of the ambush on the Minister of the Interior.

 

The Western Sahara has been at the center of Moroccan-Algerian rivalry for nearly half a century. After Spain’s withdrawal in 1975, Morocco annexed the territory, sparking a protracted guerrilla war with the Polisario Front, which had proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). Algeria, emerging as a revolutionary republic and regional counterweight to Morocco’s monarchy, became the Polisario’s primary backer, offering arms, training, and sanctuary. Though the 1991 UN-brokered ceasefire halted open hostilities, the promise of a referendum on self-determination never materialized. The conflict settled into a “frozen” state, punctuated by sporadic clashes and diplomatic jousting. Rabat consolidated its control over most of the territory, building a vast sand berm fortified by mines and surveillance, while the Polisario maintained its base in Tindouf, Algeria.

 

For decades, the United States kept a cautious distance, balancing support for Morocco’s monarchy with the principle of self-determination. That equilibrium broke after the recent attack, claiming the lives of three US dignitaries. That is when President Moore formally recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The move cements Morocco’s position but leaves Algeria and the Polisario more isolated than ever. Within hours of the ambush, Washington declared its “unwavering solidarity” with Rabat and signaled expanded cooperation on counterinsurgency. Joint intelligence-sharing, aerial surveillance, and even the deployment of U.S. military advisors are under discussion. This represents more than retaliation. Morocco has long presented itself to Washington as a linchpin in the struggle against jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel — a region where state authority crumbles under the advance of groups linked to al-Qaida, Boko Haram, and the Islamic State. By framing the Polisario’s actions as part of this broader instability, Rabat has successfully aligned its territorial ambitions with U.S. strategic concerns.

 

Three US dignitaries were killed during the ambush.

 

In Morocco, officials were quick to implicate Algeria. “This attack could not have been carried out without Algerian support,” declared a government spokesman, hinting at intelligence coordination behind the ambush. While direct evidence remains elusive, Washington’s conspicuous silence has been interpreted as tacit acceptance of Rabat’s narrative. For Algiers, the accusation is dangerous. Algeria remains Europe’s third-largest supplier of natural gas and has cultivated ties with Moscow, Beijing, and increasingly Ankara. Yet its rivalry with Morocco, sharpened by closed borders and military build-up on both sides, remains central to its foreign policy. Open confrontation, however, risks entangling Algeria in a conflict it may not wish to escalate — particularly given its fragile domestic politics and economic dependence on energy exports.

 

For Morocco’s monarchy, the ambush offers a grim but potent political dividend. It reinforces nationalist calls for a “final settlement” of the Western Sahara issue, while international sympathy strengthens Rabat’s claim that the Polisario are no longer freedom fighters but terrorists destabilizing the Maghreb. Yet the implications extend beyond Moroccan domestic politics. A deeper U.S. footprint in North Africa risks transforming a regional rivalry into a broader geopolitical contest. Russia, already Algeria’s arms supplier, may seize the opportunity to tighten its influence. The European Union, dependent on Algerian gas but also invested in stability along the Mediterranean as part of it's immigration policies, faces renewed pressure to balance between two adversaries.

 

A checkpoint allegedly manned by Polisario Front separatists.

 

Amid this diplomatic maneuvering, the Sahrawi people themselves remain trapped in limbo. Tens of thousands still live in refugee camps around Tindouf, their lives suspended between exile and unfulfilled promises of self-determination. For them, the ambush may be seen as an act of resistance, a desperate attempt to reinsert their cause into a world that has largely relegated it to the margins. Yet as the violence escalates, their political agency risks being subsumed by great power rivalry. The ambush near Smara was not only a violent strike against a ministerial convoy. It was a moment that redefined alliances and hardened fault lines in the Maghreb. By drawing Washington directly into the conflict, it has transformed a decades-long stalemate into a potential flashpoint of international confrontation.

 

A sahrawi refugee camp run by IDAP

 

Whether this alignment brings stability through Moroccan strength or deepens instability by provoking Algerian retaliation remains uncertain. What is clear is that the Western Sahara — long treated as a forgotten corner of postcolonial politics — may become a stage where local grievances and global rivalries collide.

Editorial: Toward a New Proxy War?

 

The ambush in Western Sahara that killed three American officials and nearly claimed the life of Morocco’s Minister of the Interior is more than an escalation of a long-frozen conflict. It is a warning: the Maghreb risks becoming the next proxy battlefield of global politics. The outlines of this new confrontation are already visible. Washington, having recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, now doubles down with promises of counterinsurgency support. Rabat, emboldened, portrays separatists not as a political movement but as “terrorists” threatening regional stability. Algiers, meanwhile, entrenched in its historic support for the Polisario Front, leans ever more heavily on Moscow and Beijing for diplomatic and military backing.

 

What is at stake is not simply the future of the Sahrawi people — exiled in camps, divided by a fortified berm, and abandoned by the promises of international law. It is the transformation of their struggle into a pawn on the chessboard of global rivalry. Just as Afghanistan once stood at the intersection of Cold War strategies, Western Sahara now risks being cast in the role of proxy battlefield, where local grievances serve as the fuel for distant ambitions. Europe, caught between dependence on Algerian gas and security cooperation with Morocco, will be forced into contradictions it cannot easily reconcile. The Sahel, already destabilized by armed groups, may see its crises compounded by this new polarization. And the Sahrawi, who once hoped for self-determination under the auspices of the United Nations, are now consigned to invisibility, their future traded between power blocs.

 

The United States may believe it is securing stability by binding itself to Rabat. Algeria may believe it is defending a principle by sustaining the Polisario. Both are mistaken. What they risk creating is yet another arena where the grievances of a marginalized people are subsumed into a geopolitical contest whose costs will be borne not in Washington or Algiers, but in the refugee camps of Tindouf and the contested streets of Laayoune. If the international community allows Western Sahara to become the next proxy war, it will not only betray the Sahrawi people — it will add yet another chapter to the long history of conflicts where global powers fight by proxy, and local populations pay the price.

 

Revue Diplomatique

Rachid Benyamina – North Africa and Sahel specialist