The Mahgreb Morass: A Border on the Brink - The Policymaker - July 7th, 2025

[SSgt Waller]

The Mahgreb Morass: A Border on the Brink

 

Tensions across the Maghreb have sharpened following an incident that risks unravelling the region’s fragile balance. Earlier this week, United States special operations forces supporting Moroccan units in Western Sahara shot down an Algerian MiG-29 Fulcrum during an engagement with Polisario Front fighters. It is the most serious escalation since Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory earlier this year.

 

Algeria has insisted the aircraft was on a routine training sortie and inadvertently crossed the border due to a navigational error. Rabat, by contrast, has condemned what it describes as a “flagrant violation” of Moroccan airspace and views the incident as further evidence of Algerian brinkmanship. Moroccan officials are reportedly observing a steady build-up of Algerian forces along the frontier with growing unease.

 

Leaked picture of Morroccan investigators at the crash site. An older MIG-29 Fulcrum is valued at 5-10 million dollars depending on variant.

 

For Washington, the downing of the MiG places its limited but sensitive deployment in an awkward position. What was intended as a counter-insurgency support mission has edged towards direct confrontation, blurring the line between tactical assistance and overt participation in a regional conflict. While American defence officials maintain that the engagement was purely defensive, the optics of a U.S. unit bringing down an Algerian aircraft could reverberate far beyond the Sahara.

 

In Europe, the response has been cautious but telling. France — still diplomatically entwined with its former North African colonies and mindful of its own domestic constituencies — has revised its travel advisories, warning citizens against travel to both Morocco and Algeria. The French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs cited “heightened regional tensions and unpredictable security conditions” as grounds for the update.

 

The Western Sahara question, long relegated to the margins of post-colonial diplomacy, has returned as a flashpoint where old rivalries and new alliances intersect. The downing of a single aircraft has reminded all parties how swiftly the Maghreb’s latent hostilities can ignite — and how easily outside powers can find themselves drawn into the desert’s dangerous geometry.