Minsk II ceasefire breaks down - ADANews - Dateline September 21, 2019

[MSgt Falconer]

Minsk II ceasefire breaks down.
Ukrainian army launches full scale attack on separatist territory.

 

The so called “War in Donbass” is a military conflict that has been raging in the easternmost parts of Ukraine ever since the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. The war is centered mostly on the Eastern oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk which both boasts large quantities of ethnic Russians. Many of whom wish to see a closer union with Russia rather than Ukraine. Following the Crimean declaration of independence during the Ukrainian revolution in 2014 and its subsequent annexation into the Russian Federation pro russian insurgents in many cities across eastern Ukraine staged uprisings, securing local government buildings, police station and even military facilities.

 

The Ukrainian government labeled these actions “acts of terrorism" and promptly launched anti-terror operations against the insurgents. Results were mixed as Ukrainian government forces retook some cities seized by the insurgents such as Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Horlivka. However many smaller cities remained firmly in insurgent hands and faced with large scale pro Russian uprisings, riots and demonstrations the Ukrainian forces were forced to a stalemate. With further operations commencing in the early summer of 2014 fighting escalated with large scale artillery bombardments and airstrikes becoming more and more common.

 

The gains made by the Ukrainian government prompted Russian intervention and large numbers of Russian troops and armored vehicles crossed the Ukrainian border at crossing points captured by the insurgents. This escalation continued until September 2015 when the first Minsk Ceasefire was signed. This ceasefire soon broke down however and a spokesperson for the Donetsk People’s republic stated that the insurgents “Will not accept the Minsk ceasefire in its current condition”. A second, more successful ceasefire was signed in February 2015 by

 

• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
• Separatist's leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky

 

The stipulations of the ceasefires were the following

 

1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.
    
2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems.
    
3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    
4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    
5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    
6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    
7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.
    
8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
    
9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
    
10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
     
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralization (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote, by the end of 2015.
     
12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
     
13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

 

 

Now however it seems this second ceasefire has run its course with the Ukrainian government launching several large scale offensives into separatist held territory following what they claimed were a rocket artillery attack aimed at a spring market festival in the city of Mariupol that took 33 lives and resulted in hundreds wounded. Ukraines recently elected hard-line president Anna Petrozamo stated “These insurgent and their Russian backers have occupied Ukrainian lands for far to long. This will serve as my government's official withdrawal from the Minsk Protocol. The separatists have 48 hours to surrender themselves and all their weapons before we resume combat operations”.

This sudden declaration has shocked large parts of the international community with both the OSCE and the UN expressing "grave concerns" with the Ukrainian withdrawal from the ceasefire.  President Petrozamo, who was expected to continue the previous presidents approach of diplomatic action and sanctions against Russia, issued a second statement this morning where she dismissed the OSCE and UN's concerns. "For 5 years the Ukrainian people have been forced to endure endless shelling and ceasefire violations by the Russians and their puppet governments in the occupied territories at the cost of hundreds of lives in the hope of a peaceful reintegration of our most eastern oblasts. This time, however, the Russian government has gone too far. The Ukrainian people will not stand for these atrocities, and the requests for mediation by the international organizations that have failed us repeatedly will not stop us from reuniting our country."

 

Ukranian troops on the outskirts of Mar’inka

 

 Already reports are coming in of Ukrainian troops routing insurgent at the city of Mar’inka just outside Donetsk itself.  As of writing this the Russian government has made no official statements regarding the new offensive and it remains to be seen if Russia is willing to launch a second intervention into Eastern Ukraine.

 

Simon Tam
ADA News.